Safe Asset Carry Trade

The Carry Trade: Risks and Drawdowns

We find important differences in dollar-based and dollar-neutral G10 carry trades. Dollar-neutral trades have positive average returns, are highly negatively skewed, are correlated with risk factors, and exhibit considerable downside risk. In contrast, a diversified dollar-carry portfolio has a higher average excess return, a higher Sharpe ratio, minimal skewness, is unconditionally uncorrelate...

Small Trade, Retail Investors and Asset Dynamics

In this paper, we construct a model incorporating the retail trader’s reluctance to sell into losses. We show that in this setup the informed trader always buys the asset when he receives a favorable signal. However, when the informed trader receives an unfavorable signal, he may not sell the asset if the signal is moderately bad and the retail trader is reluctant to realize losses. Hence the a...

Pairwise trade, asset prices, and monetary policy

We construct a search-theoretic model where fiat money coexists with real assets, and all assets can be used as a media of exchange. The terms of trade in bilateral matches are determined by a pairwise Pareto-efficient pricing mechanism. We do not have to appeal to exogenous liquidity constraints to generate asset prices that are consistent with the following facts: (i) fiat money can be valued...

Bilateral trade , openness and asset holdings

Impact of macroeconomic surprises on carry trade activity

This paper investigates market perceptions of the risk of large exchange rate movements by using information gleaned from risk reversal contracts and macroeconomic news surprises. We focus on the height of the carry trade period in Japan (March 2004 through December 2006). Concerns about sharp yen appreciation were particularly evident during the period of heavy carry trade activity and are mor...